In the world of multichannel marketing, brand marketers can’t afford to ignore the power of tactile consumer experiences, such as direct mail.
In fact, 72% of Gen Z and Millennial consumers wish more brands focused on surprising them through the mail, according to the Return of Touch report by The Harris Poll, in partnership with Quad. And 78% say that physical mail from retailers has prompted them to visit a brand’s physical store.
To make the most of this valuable channel, let’s start with understanding how the United States Postal Service (USPS) handles mail to ensure that offline communications reach consumers how and when we’ve intended.
Mail service providers with access to delivery data and postal optimization tools can help marketers build accurate and predictable mail distribution plans down to mail delivery times by route.
This can help reduce mailing costs by taking advantage of the work-share discounts offered to business mailers who take over some of the “middle mile” responsibilities of mailing, such as bundling mail by ZIP code or carrier routes and drop-shipping those pallets to a distribution node closer to the eventual delivery point.
USPS’s Delivering for America’s impact on postal delivery times
Those options are even more important today as the USPS has launched wide-ranging changes in its processing, transportation and delivery network as part of the 10-year Delivering for America (DFA) plan initiated by former Postmaster General Louis DeJoy in March 2021. Under the plan, the USPS is attempting to streamline and modernize its operations to eliminate what it has termed excess capacity, and to lower transportation costs.
One of the DFA changes is slated for completion this month: the final dismantling of Network Distribution Centers (NDCs) and elimination of NDC pallets (and the pallet discount). NDCs offered an interim distribution point before mail reached the more local Sectional Center Facilities (SCFs).
If business mailers can’t get mail to an SCF, the mail becomes “origin entered,” which means it must travel through the entire USPS network to be delivered, without the efficiencies and time-savings offered by drop-shipping. The full impact on business mailers has yet to be determined.
Under DFA, the USPS is also changing how it processes mail, which it divides into three categories: Letter, Flat and Parcel that apply to all classes of mail. For example, the USPS i 2022 and 2023 phased out Flats Sequencing System (FSS) automated sorting machines that handled and provided a tracking mechanism for flat mail like magazines and catalogs. That mail is now sorted manually by the delivery unit mail carriers.
The shifting USPS Service Standards
Under the DFA plan, the USPS has adjusted its Service Standards, which specify the timing of mail delivery for different classes of mail. In addition, DFA has changed the way service performance is measured. Critical Entry Times (CETs) are the cutoff times for mail to be processed the same day it is dropped at a postal facility and is a key Service Standard metric. For rural areas, the first entry day used to be counted as “0,” but now “0” is considered the day after mail enters the system, giving the USPS an extra day to meet its Service Standard score.
The Postal Service generally moves mail First In, First Out, as quickly as possible. However, its latitude and changing processes mean that mailers need to keep tabs on how the USPS is doing.
In any case, the Service Standard is not a guarantee for in-home dates — the USPS doesn’t refund costs for First Class, Marketing Mail or Periodicals that it delivers later than expected. Standards vary by mail class. Here’s an overview.
USPS First Class mail time
First Class Mail’s CET is 8 a.m. Mail destined for ZIP codes within the SCF area where mail is entered should be in-home the next day. Mail destined for ZIPs within 300 miles of the entry point is to be in-home on Day 2. All other mail for the continental U.S. should be in-home by Day 3. Alaska and Hawaii mail should be in-home by Day 5 for a Service Standard of two to five days.
The chart below shows post-DFA delivery performance experienced by Quad before and after DFA was initiated. The amount of mail in-home the first few days after mail is dropped is good. But the last 10% of the mail is trickling in-home later and later. The DFA was intended to result in less mail in-home the first days after the mail is dropped and more in-home the last two days, but it has actually resulted in more late mail.
USPS Marketing Mail delivery
Service Standards for Marketing Mail, which includes printed matter like flyers, circulars, advertising, newsletters, bulletins and catalogs, as well as small parcels, used to be fairly straightforward when calculating USPS delivery times. However, the elimination of NDCs seems likely to change that. Also, business mailers have less visibility into the timing of Flat mail delivery since FSS machines were removed. That means much of the mail that is manually sorted is not included in the data in a lot of cases.
| Day after entry | Average Curve – Pre-DFA | % In Home – Post-DFA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 7% |
| 2 | 10-30% | 27% |
| 3 | 50-70% | 65% |
| 4 | 70-90% | 80% |
| 5 | 90-100% | 87% |
| 6 | 100% | 91% |
| 7 | 92% | |
| 8 | 94% | |
| 9 | 95% | |
| 10 | 96% | |
| 11 | 97% | |
| 12 | 98% | |
| 13 | 99% | |
| 14 | 100% |
Dealing with variability in USPS delivery performance
Intelligent Mail barcode (IMb) scan data is the key to knowing how mail is performing in the USPS system. This data provides both an overall view and performance of each USPS facility. USPS performance is heavily influenced by volume fluctuations over the year.
Mailers can expect a much higher percentage of June mail to be in-home just one day after delivery to an SCF than in November, when volume is much higher. More mail will shift to the delivery window’s tail end or later in the heavy-volume months of September through December.
But no matter the month, it’s common for delivery to push beyond the Service Standard window. Keep in mind that some facilities won’t be able to meet the Service Standard window during the busiest weeks.
Below is an overview of how the USPS performs throughout a typical year and reflects general USPS delivery times. For more insights into mail delivery performance and the impact of DFA, you can follow Quad’s monthly Postal, Paper & Logistics newsletter.
Best and worst USPS delivery performance through the year
| January | The year starts with a heavy wave of package volume in gift returns. Performance recovery from the holidays usually begins by week two. However, the MLK holiday prevents a full recovery to normal service performance. |
| February-April | Typically consistent delivery performance, with some fluctuation. |
| May-June | The best delivery months of the year, as volume is very low. |
| July | Expect some mid-month slowing as back-to-school catalogs cause some disruption. |
| August | First fall catalogs mail causes a slight dip in performance, usually the first and third weeks of the month. |
| September | The week of Labor Day is usually a “good” delivery week, as the USPS prepares for it. The week following the holiday is the first slower week of the fall season. The last two weeks of the month usually are back to near-August levels. |
| October | Performance typically drops mid-month as Christmas catalogs mail heavily at this point. Political mail volume in election years can impact service, as additional volume and focus on moving ballots slow overall delivery performance. The last week of the month is usually one of the three slowest delivery weeks of the year due to the heavy volume. |
| November | Delivery from mid-October through the first week of December remains slow, but the slowest week is right after Thanksgiving when volume is extremely high as most catalogers mail their last big holiday push that week and package volumes peak from Black Friday events. |
| December | After the first week of the month, Standard mail delivery times may increase slightly because quantity drops precipitously, but this mail volume is still competing with peak holiday package volume. The USPS prepares for the First Class and Parcel surge, and facilities that do not get overwhelmed will typically move the mail very quickly.
Specific processing plants that get overwhelmed will likely completely miss the service standard. The two days prior to Christmas typically slow down, as USPS focus shifts to that First Class mail. The period between Christmas and New Year’s is difficult – there are two days with no processing and in some years it’s even more depending on when Sundays fall. Distribution companies lose days they can ship and deliver to the USPS. |
